I Regret to Inform You That Donald Trump Does Not Understand the Economy, The Reason Will Shock You

During a March 9 interview on Fox News, President Donald Trump was asked if he expected a recession this year. His response was vague and unsettling, causing the stock market to drop the next day.

Trump avoided giving a clear answer, saying, “I hate to predict things like that,” and instead talked about bringing wealth back to America, calling it a “big thing.” He acknowledged that transitions take time but remained optimistic, saying, “I think it should be great for us.” However, his lack of reassurance and his casual tone about potential economic struggles left many uneasy.

Trump’s attitude seemed to suggest that some economic pain might be necessary for long-term gain, comparing it to the idea of “no pain, no gain.” While this mindset can apply to personal challenges, like exercising to build strength, it’s a risky approach when dealing with the economy.

Recessions hurt people—jobs are lost, businesses struggle, and families face financial hardship. Unlike a temporary muscle ache from jogging, the damage from a recession can have long-lasting effects. Past presidents, like Barack Obama and George H.W. Bush, learned firsthand how difficult it can be to recover from economic downturns, even after growth returns.

Trump tried to bolster confidence by referencing his past economic achievements, particularly a trade deal with China that he claimed required China to buy $50 billion worth of American agricultural products. However, this claim was misleading. Fact-checkers have shown that the deal only projected increased purchases, not guaranteed them, and the amounts were much smaller than Trump suggested.

Even if such deals were successful, they would have a minimal impact on the overall U.S. economy, which is worth nearly $30 trillion. A few billion dollars in exports can’t offset the widespread damage of a recession.

Despite Trump’s attempts to project confidence, his vague and factually shaky statements failed to reassure the public or investors.

The stock market’s sharp decline following his interview showed that even those who might support his aggressive tactics—like corporate executives and traders—were losing faith in his ability to manage the economy. Many had initially believed his tariff increases and bold moves were just negotiating strategies, but his recent comments suggested he might be willing to risk a recession to push his agenda.

Trump’s reputation as a business genius has always been questionable. Before entering politics, he filed for bankruptcy six times, and his Trump Organization has faced legal troubles, including convictions for tax fraud. While the economy performed well during the first three years of his presidency, much of that success was built on the recovery efforts of the Obama administration after the Great Recession. The COVID-19 pandemic further exposed the fragility of his economic policies.

Trump’s economic views seem rooted in an outdated vision of America, reminiscent of the late 19th century when tariffs were the federal government’s primary source of revenue. He longs for a time when the U.S. was a manufacturing powerhouse, lamenting, “We don’t make ships anymore.

However, this nostalgia ignores the realities of today’s global economy and the complexities of modern government responsibilities, like Social Security, Medicare, and maintaining a global military presence. Tariffs, which are taxes on imports, may bring revenue to the government, but they also raise costs for consumers and businesses, potentially harming the economy.

By downplaying the risks of a recession and framing it as a mere “period of transition,” Trump showed a lack of understanding or concern for the real-world consequences of economic downturns. His cavalier attitude echoes his earlier dismissal of inflation as “transitory,” a stance that backfired as inflation persisted.

If Trump’s economic policies lead to a recession, the fallout could be severe, leaving many Americans to bear the brunt of the pain while questioning whether the promised gains will ever materialize.