A well-known Democratic political advisor, James Carville, believes voters will strongly reject President Donald Trump in the upcoming elections. He warned that Republicans could face major losses this year and next because Trump is so unpopular.
Carville told radio host Dan Abrams that he’s “very, very, very confident” the current administration will be soundly defeated in the elections ahead, especially in 2026. This comment came during a discussion about a prediction he made earlier this year — that public opinion of the administration would collapse within a month. He said that’s already happening, pointing to Trump’s low approval rating of around 37–40% and poor marks on the economy.
Abrams pushed back, citing other polls showing Trump’s approval closer to 44–46% and his disapproval just over 51%. Abrams argued that’s not a collapse, but Carville disagreed. He said special elections held this year tell a different story — Democrats have been doing far better than expected, outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 numbers by large margins. He predicted Democrats would win big in Virginia and New Jersey’s governor races.
NBC News reported that in the first months of the year, Democrats beat their 2024 performance in special elections by an average of 11.5%. In June, they exceeded expectations in five out of six special races. Data also shows Democrats are currently leading Republicans by about 2.6% in general ballot polls, which is better than most opposition parties at this point in recent midterm cycles.
CNN’s Harry Enten added that Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history. Compared to other presidents at this stage in their time in office, Trump ranks second-lowest in popularity — only beaten by his own previous term. For presidents serving a second term, he’s near the very bottom, just above Richard Nixon during Watergate.
