Former President Donald Trump is getting more support than expected in New Jersey, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1988.
A recent poll from Emerson College, conducted between May 11 and 13 with 1,000 voters in New Jersey, found that 47% of people approve of Trump, while another 47% disapprove, and 6% are unsure. This is a big shift from July 2020, when 56% of New Jersey voters didn’t like the job Trump was doing, and only 38% approved. However, it’s a slight drop from January 2025, when his approval was 48%.
This rise in support for Trump, even in a strongly Democratic state, could point to a bigger shift in American politics. While New Jersey is still expected to vote Democrat overall, the fact that more people there are backing Trump suggests that Democrats may have to work harder to keep their usual strongholds. Suburban and swing voters might be moving toward Trump’s side, which could shake up the 2028 election.
One major reason for Trump’s growing popularity in the state seems to be his tough stance on immigration. He has focused on deportations, stricter border control, and limiting legal immigration. According to the same Emerson poll, 46% of voters in New Jersey said these deportations made their communities safer, while 24% disagreed. A notable 44% also supported the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka by federal immigration officers after he tried to enter a detention facility with several members of Congress.
Immigration has been one of Trump’s key issues, and it helped him gain support in the 2024 election. But not all polls agree on his performance. A recent AP-NORC poll showed more people disapprove than approve of how he’s handling immigration (51% disapprove vs. 49% approve). Another Fox News poll found similar results—more people were unhappy with his immigration approach than not. Still, when it comes to the border specifically, he remains popular. In fact, it’s the only issue where a majority of voters in that Fox poll supported him.
In the 2024 election, many New Jersey voters leaned more conservative on immigration. A Stockton University poll from October 2024 found that 57% of voters supported deporting undocumented immigrants. Even some Democrats agreed with that idea, though support was strongest among Republicans. At the same time, many also said they supported a path for undocumented immigrants to stay legally if they met certain rules.
Trump’s message on border control struck a chord with a wide range of voters—including many Latino communities. In the city of Passaic, which is 73% Latino, Trump got 52% of the vote in 2024, up from just 23% in 2016. Similar jumps happened in Union City and Perth Amboy. Overall, Trump improved his vote share in New Jersey by 5 percentage points compared to 2020, and he gained ground in every state except two during the 2024 election.
The Emerson poll also found that Trump is currently more popular in New Jersey than the state’s Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. Only 40% of people approve of Murphy, while 45% disapprove, and 15% are unsure. Murphy has had a complicated relationship with Trump—he’s criticized Trump on issues like education and abortion, but has also worked with him on things like stopping congestion pricing in New York City.
When asked what kind of governor they want, most Republicans and independents in New Jersey said they want someone who will work with Trump. In fact, 90% of Republicans and 60% of independents felt that way. Only Democrats strongly preferred a governor who would stand up to Trump. This shift in independent voter opinion may help explain why Trump is performing better in a state usually considered safe for Democrats.
In summary, Trump’s support in New Jersey is growing, largely due to his focus on immigration and a changing political landscape. Even in a state that’s been Democratic for decades, his message is resonating with more people, especially swing voters and some minority communities. This could have major consequences for future elections.
