Donald Trump has taken an unusual and aggressive step he’s decided to take control of the Washington, D.C., police department and send hundreds of National Guard troops into the city. Politically, this move looks like a trap aimed at Democrats.
Trump understands that Democrats can’t stand him, and their first instinct with anything he does is to push back and accuse him of being authoritarian. He’s counting on that reaction. He also knows that being seen as “tough on crime” is a winning political message for him, and that even though crime in D.C. has dropped in recent years, that fact doesn’t carry much emotional weight with people.
A Washington Post poll from May showed that half of D.C. residents still think crime is a very serious problem. That’s better than last year’s 65%, but 50% is still a lot of people. So, no matter what the actual statistics say, many residents will likely support Trump’s actions simply because they want to feel safer.
It’s like flying on an airplane. Statistically, plane crashes are incredibly rare—only one fatal crash for every two million flights as of 2024. But when turbulence hits at 30,000 feet, people still feel nervous. Logic says you’re safe, but emotions say otherwise—and in politics, emotions often matter more.
Republicans, including Trump, benefit when the public conversation is about crime and safety. Many Americans still see Republicans as the “law and order” party, regardless of what happened on January 6, 2021. If Trump can get Democrats to argue that some level of crime is acceptable, he wins politically. Throwing around numbers and statistics won’t help Democrats win this fight because it doesn’t connect with people’s fears.
On top of that, the more time Democrats spend criticizing Trump’s takeover of D.C., the less time they spend talking about issues that might hurt him like the impact of his tariffs or his refusal to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.
In politics, the smartest move is to choose the battlefield where you’re strongest. For Democrats, big-city crime is not that place.
