If you have a spare hour I want to encourage you to watch the following video. It is a conversation between two former members of the Australian Army. Willy OAM, the guy with the red beard, is interviewing a former mate who is on the ground fighting for Ukraine. The unnamed Aussie is a bit schizophrenic in his assessment of the situation. Based on his analysis, I believe he was a senior NCO in the Australian Army because he is very focused on the tactical level but clearly has no clue about the broader geo-strategic picture (that is not an insult to enlisted guys).
He concedes, albeit reluctantly, that Ukraine is losing and is suffering massive casualties. He reports that one Ukrainian brigade (a unit of 5000 men) suffered 80% casualties in recent weeks. He admits that the Wagner Group is not suffering major casualties and are fighting very smart and are well-equipped. Yet, in the next breath, he insists Russia is hemorrhaging troops because that he is what he is hearing from Ukrainian sources. He repeats the Western propaganda meme that Russian is sending untrained conscripts to the front but then, based on his personal observation, bluntly states that Ukraine is sending 60 year old, untrained, ill-equipped conscripts (i.e., guys grabbed off the street) into the meat grinder.
He tries to put a gloss on Ukraine’s prospects for victory, but when you listen to him tick off the corruption, the poor leadership, the lack of supplies, incompetent commanders and stupid battle tactics a clear picture of a Ukrainian Army on the brink of destruction emerges.
Towards the end of the interview he says that he thinks the war will go on for two more years and that Ukraine has a chance at victory. At that point I realized he was not even listening to himself. Once you wade through some of the rah rah bullshit, you will obtain some important insights into the desperate situation the Ukrainians are facing.
