A veteran Democratic political adviser, James Carville, said he believes voters will strongly reject President Donald Trump in the next elections. He predicted that Republicans will face serious losses this year and in 2026 because Trump is so unpopular.
Speaking with radio host Dan Abrams, Carville said he’s “very, very, very confident” the public will turn against the Trump administration in a big way, especially in the 2026 elections.
He referred back to a prediction he made in February, saying the administration’s public support would “collapse” within 30 days. Carville argued that this has already happened, pointing to Trump’s approval rating of about 37–40% and poor ratings on the economy.
Abrams challenged that view, citing polling averages from The New York Times and RealClearPolitics that show Trump’s approval at around 44–46% and disapproval at about 51–53%, which is not much different from before. Carville responded that election results, not just polls, prove his point.
He said Democrats have done much better than Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance in most special elections this year.
He predicted big wins in upcoming governor races in Virginia and New Jersey. According to NBC News, Democrats outperformed their 2024 margins by an average of 11.5% in 16 special elections early this year. In June, they exceeded expectations in five out of six special elections.
Data analyst G. Elliott Morris said Democrats are currently ahead by 2.6% in nationwide polls comparing the two parties a stronger position than the average party not in power at this stage of past midterm cycles since 2006.
CNN’s Harry Enten also noted that Trump is one of the least popular presidents in modern history, both overall and when compared to other presidents during their second terms, with only Richard Nixon in a worse position.
