Some experts believe Vladimir Putin may be preparing for an attack on NATO countries, possibly as soon as six months from now. This concern follows comments from a German Army general who suggested such an attack might happen within four years. Journalist Andy Marr mentioned it on a podcast, and another reporter, Oliver Moody, pointed out that Danish intelligence thinks it could be sooner—just half a year away.
After Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany’s then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a major shift in defense policy. He pledged €100 billion to rebuild the military and promised to meet NATO’s defense spending target. According to Moody, Scholz followed through, and the German military has improved, but it’s still not fully prepared. The new likely Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is planning to invest even more—€500 billion, including infrastructure to quickly move troops and tanks in case of a crisis. However, debates continue, especially about whether conscription should return.
Experts say Russia is using a kind of low-level warfare that doesn’t involve direct military attacks. Instead, they’re using every non-military tactic possible—from trying to assassinate the head of a major German weapons company, to regular drone flights over German military areas. There have also been hundreds of railway sabotage incidents, floods of false information on social media, and even cases of politicians being bribed.
Some believe this is Putin’s way of keeping Europe unstable, making it harder for leaders to make decisions. Others think it may be a setup for a future military attack.
NATO’s General Secretary, Mark Rutte, said he’s urging the US and European countries to spend more on defense and increase ammunition production, warning that Russia is producing far more than NATO countries—even though NATO’s combined economy is much larger.
A recent report by the Institute for the Study of War said a strong Ukrainian army, supported by Western allies, is key to keeping peace in Europe and stopping further Russian attacks. Experts also warned that Russia’s push to weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself goes against US efforts to bring lasting peace.
