If you’re feeling overwhelmed by all the political news, dealing with annoying printer problems, or wondering why a few super-rich people have so much control over things that affect everyone, here’s something even bigger to think about—literally.
Scientists have discovered an asteroid that could possibly hit Earth in December 2032. That’s less than eight years away, and it happens to be right after a U.S. presidential election. It’s as if this giant space rock picked a dramatic moment to make an entrance.
The asteroid is called 2024 YR4. It was first spotted just after Christmas, zooming past Earth. But it’s not just moving away forever—it’s following a path that will bring it back near us again in the future. Scientists estimate that it’s somewhere between 130 feet and 330 feet long. That’s not big enough to wipe out all life on Earth like the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, but it’s still large enough to cause serious damage if it crashes into a city. If it lands in the ocean, it could create a powerful tsunami, which would be devastating for coastal areas.
For now, astronomers say that the asteroid is expected to fly past Earth safely on December 17, 2028. That’s good news. However, after that, its path becomes less certain, and that’s when things could get more concerning.
Back in January, a group of scientists, including David Rankin, who specializes in tracking space objects, estimated that the asteroid had a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. To put it another way, that’s about a 1 in 83 chance. Those odds may seem low, and Rankin reassured people that they shouldn’t worry too much about it just yet. After all, a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth also means a 98.8% chance that it will completely miss.
However, just a few weeks later, new calculations showed that the risk had actually doubled. Scientists now say that the asteroid has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth, or roughly a 1 in 43 chance. That’s still a low probability, meaning there’s a 97.7% chance that it will pass us by. But since the odds increased, scientists are paying even closer attention to its movements. NASA, along with other space agencies and universities, is constantly monitoring 2024 YR4. The latest updates are available online through NASA’s Sentry monitoring system, which tracks potentially dangerous asteroids.
If future calculations show that the asteroid is heading directly for Earth, scientists have a few possible solutions. One option would be to try and change the asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it. This might sound like science fiction, but NASA has already tested this idea with its DART mission in 2022. In that mission, they successfully altered the orbit of a small asteroid by slamming a spacecraft into it at high speed. If they could do something similar with 2024 YR4, it might be enough to push it off course and prevent a disaster.
If that doesn’t work, or if there isn’t enough time to carry out such a mission, the next best option would be evacuation. If scientists can predict exactly where the asteroid would hit, governments could move people out of the impact zone ahead of time. That wouldn’t stop the destruction, but it could at least save lives.
For now, there’s no reason to panic. Scientists will continue tracking 2024 YR4, and as David Rankin put it, there’s a good chance that nothing will happen. And if it does turn out to be a real threat, the world has options for dealing with it. In the meantime, people can go back to worrying about politics, printer ink, and everything else that comes with life on Earth.
